The EPL Relegation Battle: Mid-Season Analysis and Reaction

Just over half way through the Premier League season it’s starting to look like there may actually be a race at the top to win the title. But I have already stated my position on this race. I declared it over two months ago. Manchester City may be making it close, but come on; we all know Chelsea will finish on top after 38 matches have been played.

Since that race has been decided (well at least by me and I’m not gonna back off my prediction), let’s turn our focus to the other EPL race – the battle to stay in the league for at least one more season. Some years the EPL relegation fight is just as if not more interesting than the battle at the other end of the table.

I always enjoyed history in school, so I decided in order to figure out this relegation battle, it would be best to take a look back at some of the recent races to remain in the top flight. Looking back at the previous 10 seasons, of the teams in the drop zone at the midway point of the campaign, about 50% of them were relegated when the season was completed.

In each season, either one or two of the teams in the bottom three positions finished in the bottom three. But never all three were relegated and never did all three escape.

Here are the relegation candidates from the previous 10 seasons.

Of the clubs in the bottom three at the mid-point of the season, the highest a team went on to finish at the end of the season was Tottenham Hotspur in 2008/2009 who jumped from 18^th to 8^th. The biggest drop a team took was Newcastle United in 2008/2009 and Blackpool in 2010/2011 who both dropped from 11^th and were relegated at season’s end.

In 2007/2008 Reading was six points above of the drop zone on New Year’s day and finished the season in 18^th position and was relegated. No other club which was eventually relegated had a greater gap in points above the bottom three.

If we look at the bottom half of this year’s table we see that only Stoke City has a gap of greater than six points above the 18^th place club. All other teams are within six or fewer points from the relegation zone.

First off, one of the current teams in the drop zone, Crystal Palace, Burnley and Leicester City, will likely be relegated after it’s all said and done. But at the same time, at least one of those three clubs should be able to escape the grasp of relegation.So what have we learned from our little history lesson?

We also learn that nine of the bottom ten clubs are still potential candidates to be playing in the Championship next season.

So with this knowledge, let’s now take a look at the present and predict the future. Here are my predictions for relegation:

The Nothing to Worry About Clubs:

Everton – There is too much talent at the club to seriously worry about relegation. They are the first team I would cross off the list of relegation candidates.

Aston Villa – The Villians have been one of the harder clubs to predict this year. For a while they were near the top of the table but a few winless streaks have kept them back near the drop zone. But if Christian Benteke can remain healthy, Villa should be safe.

Queens Park Rangers – Am I crazy? Yeah I probably am, but I am not worried about QPR getting relegated. I think they have a great mix of young and mature talent and their recent form has shown me that they deserve to stay in the EPL for another year.

The Just Barely Surviving Clubs:

Crystal Palace – New manager Alan Pardew should be able to lift the team out of the drop zone and prove to his haters that he is an above average Premier League manager.

Sunderland – After last season’s great escape, Gus Poyet and the Black Cats will get close to relegation yet again, but they should survive for the second season running.

Leicester City – So you thought my QPR prediction was crazy, well how about this one? I think the Foxes, though they may currently be down at the bottom of the table, will somehow figure out a way to survive. Their recent form has shown improvement and if Leandro Ulloa can figure out how to score goals again, Leicester will safe.

The So long for now, soon-to-be relegated clubs:

West Bromich Albion – It is never easy to change managers in the middle of the season. Even though Tony Pulis may be the perfect man for the job, I don’t think he can save the Baggies from demotion. West Brom is playing in their fifth consecutive EPL season, but I think this will be their last of their current run.

Hull City – I loved the moves the Tigers made during the summer transfer window and thought they would be a solid mid-table club. But an ugly start to the season has made Steve Bruce one of the leading candidates to be the next manager sacked. And if that happens, the incoming man will have a difficult uphill climb to face.

Burnley – I am personally cheering for Burnley to stay up for another season. It is a team filled with local boys from the United Kingdom. Their talent has not been brought in from the rest of Europe and South America. Players like Danny Ings, George Boyd and Ashley Barnes have been a joy to watch this season. I am pulling for the Clarets to stay up, but sadly, I think they find themselves on the wrong side of the drop zone.

• Published on 01/06/2015 at 7:00 AM EST
• Last updated on 01/06/2015 at 7:00 AM EST